Player Forecasts

Screw sample sizes, I’ve seen one regular season game and my prognostication powers are already charged up and ready to go for each Laker player:

#1 – Jordan Farmar: I tell you, my crystal ball really likes Jordan Farmar this year.  He is in a contract year and is being pushed for the job by Shannon Brown.  Both of those factors signal to me that a career year is in the offing.  I think Jordan ends the season averaging 10 points and 4 assists, both career highs.  Moreover, I think he will end up starting a minimum of 20 games.

#2 – Derek Fisher: And the reason Farmar gets to start so many games is because of Fish who is due for a physical breakdown by my calculations.  The Lakers ran him ragged last year and no amount of physical conditioning can hold off Father Time forever.  I just have a nagging hunch that Fisher is going to suffer a substantial injury this year and end up missing a lot of time.  Even when he is healthy, I think the writing is going to be on the wall that Fish is pretty much done as a Laker.

I hate to say it, but we may have seen the last of Fish’s heroics.

#4 – Luke Walton: You know how Luke played only 3 minutes in the season opener?  Yeah, get used to that.  With Artest around, Walton is now obsolete.  Walton will now just get spot minutes backing up Ron Artest.  At best he will average 10 minutes per game this year while collecting a handful of DNP-CDs.

#6 – Adam Morrison: I’m not buying him shooting his way into a regular spot in the rotation.  He’ll be called on from time to time to do some long-range shooting, but I have a hard time imagining him playing more than 30 games.

#7 – Lamar Odom: The early season injury is going to get Odom locked in early thanks to the extra minutes the first week of the season.  After the first month of the season there will be some rumblings about trying to get Odom into the All-Star game.  However, as I alluded to earlier this week, I think that Odom’s personal life is going to blow up in his face.  Odom’s quickie marriage is going to fall apart and Lamar will go into a funk on the court, making his mental state the Lakers’ biggest concern headed into the post-season.

Don’t cry, Lamar, it is only a prediction.

#12 – Shannon Brown: Brown looks to me like a player who is starting to read his own press a little too much.  We all love his thunderous dunks, but he needs to buckle down and focus on playing smart instead of trying to make an appearance on SportsCenter’s top plays.  I foresee Brown falling out of favor the first month or two of the season before steadily regaining Phil Jackson’s trust and becoming the defensive specialist off the bench at both guard positions.

#16 – Pau Gasol: Pau is banged up and tired.  The Lakers know this and will treat him accordingly.  With three excellent big men, there is no reason for Pau to play 37 minutes per game.  This season Pau will have his minutes cut down to just 32 per game as well as Bynum taking a lot more of the offensive load in the post to prevent Gasol from taking such a beating this year.

#17 – Andrew Bynum: I was a big Bynum doubter headed into the pre-season, but I really like the way he is moving out there and that is really the biggest hurdle for him and his bad knees.  As I predicted earlier this week, I don’t think he is going to get hurt again this year, but I also don’t think he will be an All-Star though I think he’ll have a good enough season that a number of people will consider that a mistake.  This season will ultimately be remembered as the final prelude to Bynum’s ascent to dominance.

Consider this a pre-breakout season for Baby Bynum.

#18 – Sasha Vujacic: Now that Sasha has cut his hair and shaved off his scruff and once again looks like a 12-year old ball boy, he is going to rediscover his jumper.  I have no idea why the two are related, but they are.  It is a mystical force that I simply cannot explain.  Though he will have his usual bouts of streakiness, Sasha will shoot over 40% from downtown this year.

#21 – Josh Powell: J-Peezy played just over 700 minutes last year, this year he will only play about 400 and that is a good thing.  Nothing against Powell, but the less he plays, the better off the Lakers are because that means their big men are all healthy.

#24 – Kobe Bryant: This will be the year of Kobe the playmaker.  The Lakers have all sorts of offensive weapons now, so Kobe is going to coast a little bit from time to time to preserve his legs and the will manifest itself in the form of Bryant looking to pass first a little bit more.  He’ll still score 26+ points per game but will also set a career-high in assist average and still finish in the top 5 in MVP voting.  Oh, and he will add another NBA Finals MVP to his resume when he leads the Lakers to their repeat.

Can you count to five?  Kobe sure hopes you can.

#28 – DJ Mbenga: 25 games played, 25 blocked shots, at least 7 genuine “Hey you guys!!!!!” moments.

#37 – Ron Artest: It is going to be a rough start for Ron-Ron who is clearly having a hard time figuring out his role in the Laker offense.  To Artest’s credit, he’ll do whatever he can to contribute in other areas while he tries to get up to speed and not worry so much about making a good impression.  My prediction is he averages just 15 points, but chips in with 4+ assists and 6+ rebounds per game.  More impressive though will be that Artest avoid getting suspended at all and even manages to be on such good behavior that many of his teammates frequently tell the media about how much they love having his zaniness in the locker room.

What do you think of my predictions?  Am I right on or just plain crazy?  Let me know in the comments.

Tags: Adam Morrison, Analysis, Andrew Bynum, Derek Fisher, DJ Mbenga, Jordan Farmar, Josh Powell, Kobe Bryant, Lamar Odom, Luke Walton, Pau Gasol, predictions, Ron Artest, Sasha Vujacic, Shannon Brown